Prediction of the potential planting area for woody ornamental plants - PhD dissertation

Prediction of the potential planting area for woody ornamental plants based on potential natural vegetation models was defended at the Doctoral School of Landscape Architecture and Landscape Ecology of SZIE by Ákos Bede-Fazekas.

Prediction of the potential planting area for woody ornamental plants based on potential natural vegetation models

The doctoral dissertation that was defended at the Doctoral School of Landscape Architecture and Landscape Ecology of Szent István University aimed at (1) building a predictive ecological model for climax and subclimax habitats of Hungary; (2) studying the potential impact of the climate change of the 21st century on the habitats by evaluating the model predictions; (3) characterizing the environmental demands of the studied 31 important woody ornamental taxa based on their ability to be planted in the potential distribution of the climax and subclimax habitats; (4) modelling and analyzing the potential impact of climate change on the planting area of the selected ornamental taxa; (5) assessment of the likely changes in the application potential of the selected taxa based on the results of the research. Therefore, the main objective of the dissertation was to demonstrate the use of a novel modeling approach (framework) and to present the results on maps.

The research was carried out by Ákos Bede-Fazekas, research assistant of MTA Centre for Ecological Research and supervised by Imelda Somodi, research fellow of the same institute. Due to their high resource-intensity (both processor and memory), computations related to statistical downscaling climate data (Regression Kriging) and training correlative ecological model (Boosted Regression Trees) of 54 natural habitats were done in the virtual server of EcoInfLab, using R statistical software in Ubuntu Linux environment. Monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly precipitations of two climate models (Aladin and RegCM) and two future prediction periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100), as well as the reference period (1977-2006; i.e. a total of 240 data vectors, five prediction targets) were downscaled at the resolution of the MÉTA database (i.e. at a hexagonal grid with 734 m distance).

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of climax and subclimax habitats was demonstrated and these results broadly correspond to ecological expectations. The potential impact is unfavorable in case of most of the woody habitats, but favorable in case of some of the grasslands and other non-woody habitats according to the predictions. Among the woody habitats, zonal mountain forests are the most negatively affected ones. The models predict the most positive effect for some of the grasslands and other non-wooded habitats, mainly halophytic habitats, reeds and closed steppes on loess. Impact of climate change on most of the habitats related to surface waters is not significant. It was also demonstrated that planting possibilities of some of the studied 31 ornamental plants will be affected positively by climate change. Others will be negatively affected. These findings were in aggreement with the literature.